SBE Council Chief Economist on Latest Jobs Data

Today, Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), released the following statement in response to the May employment data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics continues to tell a mixed story on jobs and the U.S. economy.

"The establishment survey pointed to an increase of only 69,000 in employment for the month of May, far below expectations and where job creation should be - at 240,000 to 250,000 - during a recovery.

"However, at the same time, the household survey showed an increase of 422,000 in employment, as well as an increase of 642,000 in the labor force. Those increases came after two-month declines in both. Household survey data is volatile form month to month. One hopes that the May performance will become a trend, but it's hard to envision such a turn, unfortunately, given the policy realities at hand right now.

"The story of uneven, under-performing job creation is not surprising. It's exactly what we should expect given a policy environment emphasizing higher taxes, increased regulation, excessive government spending crowding out the private sector, and a lack of leadership on trade. The U.S. economy desperately needs a change in public policy to ignite entrepreneurship and investment, and the economic growth and job creation that result. If that does not happen, we all better get used to slow growth and poor job creation."

SBE Council Chief Economist on Latest Jobs Data

Today, Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), released the following statement in response to the February employment data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"The news on the jobs front in February was good across the board. According to the establishment survey, payrolls increased by 227,000 in February, with private sector payrolls up 233,000. That's the third straight month where payroll gains exceeded 200,000.

"The household survey, which better captures small business activity, showed employment gains of 428,000, with the labor force also increasing by 476,000. The data show solid gains for two straight months now.

"These employment gains have come in spite of fiscal and monetary policymaking that has kept uncertainty alive. Serious risks remain, including energy prices and misguided energy policies, new taxes and regulations associated with ObamaCare phasing in, European woes, looming tax increases, new regulatory threats and monetary policy risks. The path of these trends and policies all need to change to get the U.S. economy firmly on a path of solid economic growth. We need pro-entrepreneur, pro-growth tax and regulatory relief, an aggressive free trade agenda, and sound monetary policy focused on price stability."

SBE Council Chief Economist on Initial Jobless Claims

Today, Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), released the following statement in response to the latest initial jobless claims released by the Department of Labor:

"The second week in a row of seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims coming in at 351,000 is a clear plus. That's the lowest level since early March 2008. And the trend, though uneven, has been positive since mid-September of last year.

"While moving below the 400,000 initial claims level is important, it must be pointed out that during periods of solid economic growth, initial jobless claims generally run in the range of 270,000 to 330,000. So, we still have plenty of work to do.

"Our economic recovery remains uncertain, uneven and under-performing largely due to an adverse policy climate for business and investment. To return to robust economic and employment growth, there needs to be a shift from anti-growth tax, regulatory and government spending policies to a pro-growth policy structure of tax and regulatory relief, and smaller government."

SBE Council Chief Economist on Latest Jobs Data

Today, Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), released the following statement in response to the January employment data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"The resiliency of U.S. businesses and entrepreneurs was on full display in the latest jobs numbers. No matter which survey is chosen - the establishment (or payroll) survey or the household survey - the jobs story for January was good.

"In fact, the household survey, which better captures startup and small business activity, was particularly strong. After factoring out population adjustments that the BLS puts into effect in January, compared to December, January employment was up by a robust 631,000, which was the biggest leap since November 2007.

"Just imagine what U.S. entrepreneurs, business and investors could be accomplishing if policymaking was shifted in a pro-growth direction of permanent and substantive tax and regulatory relief, less government spending, an aggressive free trade agenda, and sound monetary policy focused on price stability."

SBE Council Chief Economist on Latest Jobs Data

Today, Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), released the following statement in response to the December employment data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"The best way to sum up the latest jobs data is that the employment story is mixed but improving.

"The improvements can be found in a 212,000 increase in private payrolls in December. In addition, the unemployment rate declined for the fourth straight month, moving from 9.1% in August to 8.5% in December. But the big, positive news from a small business perspective is that employment has increased for six straight months, for total gains of 1.4 million, according to the household survey, which better captures start up and small business activity.

"The mixed part of the picture is found when digging a bit further into the data. For example, about a quarter of the decline in the unemployment rate in December was due to a shrinking of the labor force. The labor force has declined for two straight months, and was down in five of the last seven months. That shows continuing discouragement among workers. And it must be kept in mind that the labor force participation rate (64.0% in December) and the employment-population ratio (58.5%) remain at or near lows that were last seen in the period of 1983-84.

"The recent improvements in the jobs picture are most welcome, but the economy desperately needs government to get out of the way so that entrepreneurs and investors in the private sector can be unleashed to drive innovation, growth and jobs. An under-performing U.S. economy for more than four years now is an outrage, and it's due to big government raising costs and creating uncertainty for business and investment."

SBE Council Chief Economist Says Throw Half a Party on Jobs Data

Today, Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), released the following statement in response to the November employment data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"With the unemployment rate dropping from 9.0 percent in October to 8.6 percent in November, many people probably want to throw a party. How about half a party?

"We should celebrate that, according to the household survey from which we get the unemployment rate, employment increased by 278,000 in November. That was the fourth monthly increase in a row, and points to life among small businesses.

"But the party needs to be reined in some given that the labor force actually fell by 315,000 in November. That signals continued distress and discouragement among workers.

"We also need to remain sober about where we stand in terms of employment and the labor force. The range for the employment-population ratio in 2011 has been between 58.1 percent and 58.5 percent, which is a 28-year low. And for the labor force participation rate, the 64.0 percent to 64.2 percent range for 2011 registers at a 27-year low."

"The U.S. has a long way to climb back on the jobs front. In order to fully celebrate a re-energized economy and job market, we need pro-growth policies on taxes, regulations and trade to provide positive incentives for entrepreneurs, businesses and investors, and to boost the confidence of job seekers and consumers."

SBE Council Chief Economist on Latest Jobs Numbers and the Economy

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), released the following statement in response to the October employment data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"What most people miss each month is that the jobs report is a story of two surveys - the payroll survey, which captures employment at established, larger firms, and the household survey, which is more volatile but better reflects small business and start up activity.

"The payroll survey for October offers nothing exciting. Employment growth of 80,000 was pathetic, and even if focusing on the private sector, a 104,000 gain was under-performing.

"The household survey, however, offers hope. After two years of downward movement and bouncing along the bottom, the labor force has gained for three months now: +366,000 in August, +423,000 in September, and +181,000 in October. At the same time, and most important, jobs growth in the household survey has been strong and positive for three straight months now: +331,000 in August, +398,000 in September, and +277,000 in October. Of course, both the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio linger near quarter-century lows. But the question is: Are we at some kind of turning point?

"The answer to that, though, remains murky. Uncertainty on the economy and jobs, unfortunately, persists overwhelmingly due to an anti-growth policy environment. If tax, regulatory, and trade policies shifted in a pro-growth direction; government spending and debt were reined in; and monetary policy got re-focused on price stability, then the resulting confidence and clarity would be a huge plus for entrepreneurship, investment, and economic and employment growth."

SBE Council Chief Economist on Latest Jobs Numbers and the Economy

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), released the following statement in response to the September employment data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"The jobs story has been so bad for so long that it's hard not to get excited about two months of employment moving in the right direction.

"The household survey, which better captures start up and small business activity, reports positive gains in key areas for two straight months now. First, after two months of decline, the number of employed increased by 331,000 in August and 398,000 in September. Second, again after declines in two months, the labor force grew by 366,000 in August and by 423,000 in September. That's most welcome news.

"Of course, however, we still have a very deep hole to climb out of, and the question is: Will this brief positive move continue or will it be just another blip? That depends entirely on the policy climate. If the agenda of ever-increasing government, higher taxes, and more regulation continues, then we will continue to slog through an uneven, poor recovery. But a pro-growth agenda of smaller government, lower taxes, and deregulation, along with free trade and monetary policy focused on price stability, would provide a foundation upon which a strong recovery can be built. The policies that bring about economic growth and job creation are no secret. Unfortunately, we've been doing the exact opposite for nearly four years now."

SBE Council Chief Economist on August Jobs Numbers and President's Speech

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), released the following statement in response to the August employment data reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

"The August jobs numbers simply continued the long, frustrating story of a grossly under-performing economic recovery, and generally clueless policymaking.

"The payroll survey pointed to a mere gain of 17,000 in private payrolls in August, with the trend showing a dramatic slowdown in hiring over the past four months. Meanwhile, the household survey, which better captures start up and small business activity, reported the labor force up by 366,000 and employment up 331,000 in August. But that good news must be tempered by the reality that employment is still down by 237,000 from its 2011 high in March, and the labor force is down by 99,000 compared to where it was in May. The August household survey increases are more likely blips rather than the start of positive trends, unfortunately.

"As for President Obama's jobs speech on September 8, it appears it may include more of the same policymaking that has failed for the past nearly three years. For example, politically-driven infrastructure spending, subsidies for his favored 'green' jobs, temporary and targeted tax measures, and further extensions of unemployment benefits will not create jobs or restore business confidence. Our economy needs substantive and permanent tax relief, deregulation, smaller government, and aggressive free trade policies. That, unfortunately, is the antithesis of Obama-nomics."

Statement on July Jobs Data

Reacting to today's jobs data, Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council) President & CEO Karen Kerrigan said President Obama needs to immediately change policy in a pro-growth direction. While July's job numbers represent a sliver of good news, the economy and outlook remain rocky, at best. According to Kerrigan, the President should consider replacing his current "jobs council" with small business owners and entrepreneurs to ensure he is hearing directly from those who will ultimately lead the nation back to strong levels of growth and job creation.

"The economy cannot build positive momentum with the meager number of jobs that are being created. Small business owners have low confidence and a grim outlook because of the costly and expensive policies and regulations that are being advanced in Washington. Entrepreneurs and businesses will not add jobs just because the President's job council says that the private sector must 'do more'. First and foremost, federal policies must encourage small business owners to do more by taking less of their resources. If the President listened to small business owners on a regular basis, he would hear just this. Federal policies need a drastic overhaul," said Kerrigan.

SBE Council Chief Economist Raymond Keating observed that the string of bad economic news has overwhelmed the bit of good news on jobs.

"Even the unemployment rate dropping from 9.2% in June to 9.1% in July was based on negative trends," said Keating.

On the positive side, the establishment survey showed private sector payroll growth of 154,000, with total nonfarm payrolls up by117,000. But for the third straight month, the civilian labor force declined - dropping by 193,000 in July. At the same time, employment fell by 38,000 in July - the second straight monthly drop and the third decline in four months.

"That combination of a bigger decline in the labor force relative to the fall off in employment meant that the unemployment rate actually inched down. But it was not due to anything positive," added Keating.

Keating also noted that the labor force participation rate in July fell to 63.9% - the worst showing since May 1983 - and the employment-population ratio dropped to 58.1% -the worst since July 1983.

Keating concluded: "This continuing economic and employment mess makes clear that the policies of bailouts, massive increases in government spending, tax hikes,increased regulation, and loose monetary policy have accomplished nothing. In fact, they have imposed costs and uncertainties that have dragged the economy down. If serious about getting the economy and job creation back on track, then it's time to leave behind such bankrupt policymaking."

SBE Council Chief Economist on April Jobs Numbers

Today, Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), issued the following statement on the April jobs data:

"Many Americans will pick their preferred thoroughbred in tomorrow's Kentucky Derby. Today, small business owners and investors need to pick their preferred government survey to figure out which direction employment is going.

"The establishment survey, which covers larger, more established firms, indicated that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 244,000 in April, with the private sector adding 268,000. Some welcome good news.

"However, the household survey, which better captures start up and small business activity, pointed to a decline of 190,000 in jobs in April. For good measure, the labor force was effectively unchanged. This survey also showed that both the labor force participation rate (64.2% in April) and the employment-population ratio (58.4% in April) continue to linger at 27-year lows. None of this is good news.

"I'm unfortunately betting on the household survey. Surveys continue to show a great deal of uncertainty among small business owners, and in turn, employment levels remain low and many discouraged workers continue to be absent from the labor force. Until public policy gets pointed in a pro-growth direction - for example, tax and regulatory relief, smaller government, free trade advanced, and monetary policy focused on price stability - the economy and employment will continue to under perform."

SBE Council Chief Economist on February Employment Numbers

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), issued the following statement on the February jobs data:

"Finally, we have a month in which all of the major jobs numbers moved in a positive direction. The payroll survey showed employment up by 192,000 in February. Particularly interesting, the private sector added 222,000, while the public sector cut 30,000.

"Meanwhile, the household survey, which better captures start up and other small business activity, showed an employment gain of 250,000. And though the gain was small at 60,000, the labor force grew for the first time in several months.

"The U.S. economy obviously still has a long way to go in terms of economic growth, getting people back into the workforce, and the recovery of millions of lost jobs. But the February data at least offers hope that this thus-far pathetic recovery might be getting a bit of life.

"Of course, uncertainty persists regarding energy prices and public policy. Federal officials could help the economy and jobs by reeling in the size of government; providing permanent and substantial tax relief; moving from the recent era of hyper-regulation to deregulation; shifting from the absence of a trade policy to free trade; moving to a pro-exploration, pro-development energy agenda; and getting monetary policy focused on price stability."

SBE Council Chief Economist on January Employment Numbers

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), issued the following statement on the January jobs data:

"There's something for everyone in the January jobs data. If your focus is on the establishment survey, then there was great disappointment as an employment gain of only 36,000 - including a plus of 50,000 in the private sector - was far below almost all expectations.

"However, if you like the household survey, then there's more to be positive about, namely, an increase in the number of employed by 589,000, after taking into account population adjustments in the data starting in January. Some commentators this morning have been ignoring the need to adjust for these changes. At the same time, the civilian labor force was flat. That combination of increased employed and a flat labor force led to a decline in the unemployment rate from 9.4% to 9.0%.

"What does it all mean? With weather issues and shifts in population data, the January numbers are murky at best. I always focus on the household survey given its ability to capture startup and small business activity, along with the sentiment of those out of work. And even here, the January data offer a split story. An increase in the number of employed indicates an up tick in small business activity and hiring, but lack of growth in the labor force, especially after three months of declines, does not speak well of the confidence of those out of work. In fact, the labor force participation rate in January continued its multi-year decline, hitting a low not registered since March 1984."

SBE Council Chief Economist on September Employment Numbers

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), issued the following statement on the September jobs data:

"What can be said about the jobs data released on October 8 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics? Well, it could have been worse, I suppose.

"Make no mistake, the lead of the jobs story remains pretty grim. The establishment-payroll data showed the fourth straight month of declines in employment, with the September loss at 95,000. The numbers from the household survey were a bit more hopeful in showing an employment increase of 141,000. The household survey better captures start up and small business activity.

"But in the end, the employment situation remains ugly. According to the household survey, from its peak in November 2007, the economy has lost 7.1 million jobs. And after climbing for a few months early this year, employment was down in September versus April by 64,000.

"The problem, quite simply, remains grossly misguided public policy. Taxes have been increased, with more hikes threatened. The current White House and congressional leaders are hyper-regulators. Government spending has reached unprecedented levels. Nothing is happening in terms of advancing free trade. And the Federal Reserve is now talking up the idea of raising, rather than fighting, inflation. That's a frightening policy scenario. Why would anyone expect entrepreneurs and investors to create jobs when government is attacking business and the economy on all fronts?"

More on the August Jobs Numbers

The August jobs data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 3 shows a stagnant or under-performing economy still unable to create jobs.

The establishment survey showed that payrolls have fallen for three straight months now. The drop in August registered -54,000, with government employment down by 121,000 due to the continuing decline in Census workers. Meanwhile, private payroll growth remained anemic, with an increase of only 67,000.

Clearly, private firms do not possess the incentives to create a substantive amount of jobs...

Read the rest of the SBE Council Cybercolumn by chief economist Ray Keating here.

SBE Council Chief Economist on July Employment Numbers

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), issued the following statement on the July jobs data:

"While the loss of 131,000 jobs in July according to the payroll survey obviously is worrisome, the data from the household survey is even more troubling. The size of the labor force has fallen for three straight months - down by 181,000 in July and by 1.2 million since April. Meanwhile, employment declined by 159,000 in July, and is down by 495,000 since April. Given that the bulk of new jobs come from smaller firms, these numbers indicate a continued dearth of entrepreneurship and small business growth. And due to the formidable tax and regulatory costs being imposed by the federal government, little reason exists to expect a robust recovery in jobs anytime soon."

SBE Council Chief Economist on State Employment Data

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), issued the following statement on today's June jobs data for the states:

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that state unemployment rates were generally lower in June. But the employment story actually remains quite grim. The key reason for lower unemployment rates was the decline in states' labor forces. That is, people dropping out of the labor market. In fact, in June, 48 states and the District of Columbia experienced declines in seasonally adjust labor forces compared to May, with only Alabama and Montana growing.

"Let's be clear. Across the nation, discouraged workers and nonexistent job creation is all about a federal policy environment that is completely hostile to entrepreneurship, business and investment. So long as the policy agenda focuses on more government spending, increased taxes, and expanded regulation, under-performing or nonexistent economic growth and job creation will persist."

Jobs Picture Improves

American entrepreneurs, businesses and investors are a hearty bunch.

Coming out of the worst recession arguably since the Great Depression, the public policy agenda being pursued by our elected leaders in Washington, D.C., is set on hiking costs and creating additional uncertainties. That certainly is no plus for the economy.

Nonetheless, the private sector fights to push the economy ahead. And in fact, there are some clear positives in the employment report for April released today (May 7) by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics...

Read the rest of the SBE Council Cybercolumn by Ray Keating here.

The Latest Jobs Data for February

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provided the latest monthly jobs data on March 5...

Get the rundown on the key numbers in the latest SBE Council Fact of the Week, along with a quick take from SBE Council chief economist Ray Keating.

SBE Council Chief Economist on January Jobs Data and Policy Threats

Raymond J. Keating, chief economist for the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council (SBE Council), issued the following statement on the January jobs data:

"The employment losses indicated by the payroll survey certainly are disappointing. In 24 of the last 25 months, we have suffered job losses, according to this survey.

"However, for the first time since August, the household survey showed an increase in both employment and in the size of the labor force. The household survey is important as it better captures entrepreneurial activity. But it also is quite volatile from month to month. For example, while 3.9 million jobs have been lost over the past year, according to this survey, there have been months showing job gains. So, is the January data another blip or a sign of a turnaround?

"Given the many uncertainties persisting on the policy front - with some shift in focus now from health care and climate change regulatory initiatives to higher taxes and even more government spending - unfortunately there is little reason to expect robust entrepreneurial activity and job creation in the near term. Policy matters, and right now, policy threats and realities are working against entrepreneurship, investment, economic growth and job creation."